As Chimera30 theorizes, and I happen to agree with, I think many players within that skill range are simply waiting for the seasonal roll to come along because they don't want to go through that process of self-correcting their CSRs. They'd rather hold onto their inflated CSRs.
We need to be careful of how we describe this. It is admittedly difficult to do so when you have a bunch of people coming in here screaming.
Yes, the +1/-15 plan is meant to address CSR>MMR. But I think there is a lot of merit in the argument that MMR is too low at this end of the spectrum.
The cover all statement Menke has been using is "those Champs are actually diamond, it's a fair match." It never really addresses the cause. And there have been a couple instances where, if you look at the game history, he's talking about opponents with >90% win rates and ~2.0k/d's.
It does raise questions:
Why is only one team's CSR dramatically inflated using the current model in each of these cases?
Is TS2 really meant to place players with 80-90% win rates into Diamond? And if yes, is that really an effective measure of skill/progression? (IMO, absolutely not and it will cause far more problems than it could possibly solve)
How do you realistically improve your rank in that window?
The answer will most likely end up being "you don't," even after the ranks get reset and MMR=CSR. We have not had a good look under the hood see see how TS2 is implemented and how well it performs on the high end of the curve. The best data set I have seen is Juror Number 8
's MMR plots, posted separately in this thread.
(1800 CSR, falling due to "inflation", 81% win rate):Doubles plot
(currently 1574 CSR, past seasons have ranged from Diamond 6 to Onyx 2550):FFA plot
FFA does not suffer from much inflation. There are not outside influences from things like party size. For those of us not working at 343, it is probably the best baseline we can pull. In this case, it is a steady and firm Onyx MMR ranking (>2.0).
For Doubles, Juror's MMR is trending down since the beginning of the season
. His MMR does not hit onyx. TS2 believes he is a Diamond doubles player. Approx. top 10% of the population, give or take a few percent. This is in spite of his 81% win rate. We know from his mostly unfiltered FFA ranking that he is a very good player. If he is getting "carried," it is not a significant amount. He is averaging 12 kills/game, further evidence he is not getting carried.
The last bolded part is super important, particularly for those who are saying "wait until the next rank reset." Juror has a 81% win rate in a very competitive playlist. *His MMR is trending down.*
He is not going to improve his rank next season, assuming nothing else changes. That cannot possibly be how TS2 is intended to function.
The FFA to doubles comparison is not 100% apples to apples. But it is cases like Juror's that suggest TS2 is not performing well for team games in onyx. There are others examples that have been shown, but this is the cleanest data set I have seen.