See the post before this about Juror. It's a rare case and won't cause problems for the vast majority of players.Chimera30 wrote:Hey Josh, one of the strangest inflations we've seen in this thread has been Juror Number 8 in Doubles. He reached Champion CSR in the playlist early in the season, however when you posted his normalized MMR graph after implementing the CSR correction change, it showed he never exceeded Diamond MMR. But according to him, he continues to win 80-90% of his Doubles games. This had led some to think that Trueskill2 is having trouble correctly gauging skill at the Onyx level and higher, and that next season there will be a large number of high-skill players "rank locked" in Diamond where they will just continually smash weaker players. I'm wondering if you can address this. I'm wondering:
- How did Juror Number 8 get so inflated in Doubles?
- How is he managing such a high win rate in Doubles without his MMR seemingly reflecting that?
- How will such inflation be prevented next season? I don't see how ranking everyone 200 points behind their MMR after quals will prevent inflation from happening after the fact? (e.g. after qualifying, if someone goes on a hot win streak while performing as expected by TS2, won't their CSR go up while MMR stays the same?)
As for inflation, we'll keep using the current +15/-15, +1/-1 system to prevent inflation. We've been running simulations on alternative methods that are more forgiving in giving out points, but they all lead to unacceptable levels of inflation in the cases where win% gets above certain points. Win% can get high, of course, because of matchmaking deficiencies. But we'd like to keep Ranks correct when that happens.
So next season players will start about 200 below their target MMR and go +15/-1 until they get there. This will probably take around 20-60 games depending on win% and just randomness.