1. A 50/50 game in which both teams are equally likely to win, I would expect to be a close 50 to 49 game (Not 50/50 just due to timing issues). I know individual variances are going to skew the actual score away from the predicted outcome. Also, there is an individual "kills per minute" variable...eLantern wrote:1. Josh has mentioned previously that TS2 doesn't directly factor match spread, only wins and losses. It uses the team MMRs to determine the likely outcome percentage or ratio, but the individual expectation variances can indirectly equate to a score spread for slayer modes (only).radar3301enigma wrote:1. Out of curiousity, does the x/y predictions directly correlate to expected score? I.e. 75/25 equals predicted outcome of 50 to 17? And the 58% equate to 50 to 36?ZaedynFel wrote:1) 75/25 for the winner. I see one Onyx pre-match, but the top two in kills after the match were both Onyx.radar3301enigma wrote:@Josh:
What were the odds of winning these games? (And were they really Onyxes?)
2) Winner was favored at 58% before the quitter, 94% after. Quitting reduces chances both because you have less players, but also because it serves as a signal that the quitting player was not playing as well as usual, which hurts their team. I see one Onyx on the losing team pre-match, who dropped to Diamond, and a Diamond who became Onyx. So really only one Onyx player in that match.
2. I quit the second game when it was something like 35 to 9, and yet only lost 1 CSR. Bug? Or intentional?
3. Is the population skill cap limit (1.7 for Slayer, iirc) for the matchmaker on a per player basis, or per team? I.e. if I (as a roughly 1.0 player) were to team up with a couple 2.0 players, and another 1.0 player, would our average MMR be 1.5 [(2+2+1+1)/4] or 1.35 [(1.7+1.7+1+1)/4]?
2. If you lost only 1 CSR it was because your MMR (at the time of quitting) was above your CSR. Also, since the odds shifted so heavily in favor of the opposing team the MMR impact to you likely became minimized so significantly that your MMR barely altered; in fact, if you managed to perform better than the changing circumstances (since individual performance is measured on a per minute level) you might have even been able to gain a minor amount of MMR prior to quitting assuming others on the team took the brunt of the negative impact for losing, but the action of actually quitting the match I'm sure impacted your MMR in a negative manner. The first quitter will always take the most significant impact in both MMR and CSR (-30).
3. That's a question Josh is more equipped to can handle.
2. I was the first and only to quit, so theoretically, I should have lost 30 CSR (I didn't).