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[Locked] Matchmaking Feedback Update – May 7

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OP 5/9/2018

ZaedynFel

343 Industries

D M4N8 wrote:
Hey- Dr.Menke-

Just wanted to clear up three questions I have. Easy ones:

1.) So my apart from the 10 placement matches- does this new system also take into account your rank from the last season?
I'm a little confused here because I know you mentioned pre-season- but I am not sure what you mean by that?

2.) What does this new system take more into consideration: your Win Percentage or your K/D?
Is there a certain percentage here?
50/50?
Also- is there anything else being considered- if so- what?

3.) Just making sure I'm getting this right: If I solo queue- I should be expecting a lower rank? Even if I win the same amount of games and get the same amount of kills and deaths?

1) The new system knows all about your previous seasons and has made an independent judgement based on the raw data, not on the old rank.

2) Not win percentage, but the quality of each win taken one at a time. There's no percentage, it's more like a gate. The winning team MUST go up in MMR in aggregate, and the losing team MUST go down. It's possible for individuals to buck the trend per team, but the sum of all the changes must be up and down. In a very tight match between all very similar skilled players, the amount everyone goes up / down may be very small.

It considers everything in the paper. Party Size, how many matches you've played so far on that playlist, whether or not you quit, how long you play in the match, how long it's been since you played last, etc.

3) Yes, a solo player will currently have a lower Rank than 4 players of the exact same skill in the long run. The to4 will also be given harder matches. We left it this way because we don't have a separate Team Ranking list to acknowledge the benefit of playing in a party. This way merges it all. And, to be honest, a to4 of the same skill really is better than a solo of that skill, so if you always play in a team you do deserve the Rank (as a team).

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OP 5/9/2018

ZaedynFel

343 Industries

King of Brunch wrote:
LUKEPOWA wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
You can have exactly the same skilled players in a SWAT match (happens in Super Fiesta too) and get wildly different spreads.
Speaking of Super Fiesta, can you confirm if the weapons we spawn with are 100% RNG or are there factors which can determine if we get a certain rarity (uncommon - legendary) of weapons throughout the match like our win/loss record in that playlist for example? So if I'm on a losing streak, the game will factor that in during the match where my team is more favored to win and my team will get better weapons throughout the game compared to the other team.
I've wondered this too. I don't think it's truly 100% RNG or that it takes into account losing streaks like Mario Kart where the person in last gets the best weapons. I think every weapon has a different weight so you are more likely to get weaker ones than stronger variants (magnum/BR vs. Nornfang or Prophets Bane).be

Sorry, it's 100% random.

But don't feel bad, the human brain has been proven to have a really hard time NOT imposing some pattern on any randomness it sees. We always think there's a pattern and try to find it, even when there isn't one. I've seen it tons in gaming for sure.

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5/9/2018

Plastic Hassle

ODST - Onyx

ZaedynFel wrote:
Sorry, it's 100% random.

But don't feel bad, the human brain has been proven to have a really hard time NOT imposing some pattern on any randomness it sees. We always think there's a pattern and try to find it, even when there isn't one. I've seen it tons in gaming for sure.

Are you sure? My understanding from the Community Update is that it’s a weighted random selection:

Quote:
To keep things interesting, the rarest REQs will also be a bit rarer in Super Fiesta. So when you wind up with that Prophets’ Bane, be sure to put it to use.

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5/9/2018

snickerdoodle

343 Industries

Plastic Hassle wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Sorry, it's 100% random.

But don't feel bad, the human brain has been proven to have a really hard time NOT imposing some pattern on any randomness it sees. We always think there's a pattern and try to find it, even when there isn't one. I've seen it tons in gaming for sure.
Are you sure? My understanding from the Community Update is that it’s a weighted random selection:

Quote:
To keep things interesting, the rarest REQs will also be a bit rarer in Super Fiesta. So when you wind up with that Prophets’ Bane, be sure to put it to use.

A Nornfang being rare doesn't make it less random.

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OP 5/9/2018

ZaedynFel

343 Industries

Plastic Hassle wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Sorry, it's 100% random.

But don't feel bad, the human brain has been proven to have a really hard time NOT imposing some pattern on any randomness it sees. We always think there's a pattern and try to find it, even when there isn't one. I've seen it tons in gaming for sure.
Are you sure? My understanding from the Community Update is that it’s a weighted random selection:

Quote:
To keep things interesting, the rarest REQs will also be a bit rarer in Super Fiesta. So when you wind up with that Prophets’ Bane, be sure to put it to use.

Ah, OK, that's probably the case for the rarest ones, but it's just a different random roll, it's not based on anything you do in the game or recent weapons.

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5/9/2018

King of Brunch

Marine - Iron

ZaedynFel wrote:
Plastic Hassle wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Sorry, it's 100% random.

But don't feel bad, the human brain has been proven to have a really hard time NOT imposing some pattern on any randomness it sees. We always think there's a pattern and try to find it, even when there isn't one. I've seen it tons in gaming for sure.
Are you sure? My understanding from the Community Update is that it’s a weighted random selection:

Quote:
To keep things interesting, the rarest REQs will also be a bit rarer in Super Fiesta. So when you wind up with that Prophets’ Bane, be sure to put it to use.
Ah, OK, that's probably the case for the rarest ones, but it's just a different random roll, it's not based on anything you do in the game or recent weapons.

And by "different random roll" you mean a different weighting?

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5/9/2018

Plastic Hassle

ODST - Onyx

ZaedynFel wrote:
Plastic Hassle wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Sorry, it's 100% random.

But don't feel bad, the human brain has been proven to have a really hard time NOT imposing some pattern on any randomness it sees. We always think there's a pattern and try to find it, even when there isn't one. I've seen it tons in gaming for sure.
Are you sure? My understanding from the Community Update is that it’s a weighted random selection:

Quote:
To keep things interesting, the rarest REQs will also be a bit rarer in Super Fiesta. So when you wind up with that Prophets’ Bane, be sure to put it to use.
Ah, OK, that's probably the case for the rarest ones, but it's just a different random roll, it's not based on anything you do in the game or recent weapons.

I think it’s fair to say that many assume “random” = uniform distribution, which isn’t the case. Rarity introduces weighting and that weighting is then skewed for some high-end weapons.

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5/9/2018

Comedic Hermit

Monitor

Plastic Hassle wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Plastic Hassle wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Sorry, it's 100% random.

But don't feel bad, the human brain has been proven to have a really hard time NOT imposing some pattern on any randomness it sees. We always think there's a pattern and try to find it, even when there isn't one. I've seen it tons in gaming for sure.
Are you sure? My understanding from the Community Update is that it’s a weighted random selection:

Quote:
To keep things interesting, the rarest REQs will also be a bit rarer in Super Fiesta. So when you wind up with that Prophets’ Bane, be sure to put it to use.
Ah, OK, that's probably the case for the rarest ones, but it's just a different random roll, it's not based on anything you do in the game or recent weapons.
I think it’s fair to say that many assume “random” = uniform distribution, which isn’t the case. Rarity introduces weighting and that weighting is then skewed for some high-end weapons.

Random means random. The actual weighting is irrelevant since everyone has the same chance of getting the weapons. Think about the price is right's big wheel. If 3 of those numbers were .25 cents. Would that make the result any less random?

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5/9/2018

King of Brunch

Marine - Iron

Plastic Hassle wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Plastic Hassle wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Sorry, it's 100% random.

But don't feel bad, the human brain has been proven to have a really hard time NOT imposing some pattern on any randomness it sees. We always think there's a pattern and try to find it, even when there isn't one. I've seen it tons in gaming for sure.
Are you sure? My understanding from the Community Update is that it’s a weighted random selection:

Quote:
To keep things interesting, the rarest REQs will also be a bit rarer in Super Fiesta. So when you wind up with that Prophets’ Bane, be sure to put it to use.
Ah, OK, that's probably the case for the rarest ones, but it's just a different random roll, it's not based on anything you do in the game or recent weapons.
I think it’s fair to say that many assume “random” = uniform distribution, which isn’t the case. Rarity introduces weighting and that weighting is then skewed for some high-end weapons.

So we can agree that you have a better chance of getting a magnum than Nornfang because the magnum has a higher weighting?

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OP 5/9/2018

ZaedynFel

343 Industries

Tommi theKrogan wrote:
[Questions about playing vs. Parties

I adapted my query so I could see specifically how you do against party sizes.

You are 73% vs. to3 which you have played 11 times.
You are now 47% vs. to4 which you have now played 15 times. I guess you played 7 more times vs. to4 since the last talk and won all of them.
You are 48% vs. to2 and 60% vs. to1.

vs to3 or to4 (26 matches) you are 58%.

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5/9/2018

Chimera30

Monitor

Plastic Hassle wrote:
I think it’s fair to say that many assume “random” = uniform distribution, which isn’t the case. Rarity introduces weighting and that weighting is then skewed for some high-end weapons.

Your confusing random generation with probability of what you get.

If you shuffle a deck of cards 7 times and get the order completely random, your still more likely to draw a number card instead of a face card. Or, let’s say you assign weapons to the numbers on a die:

AR
AR
prophets bane
selene’s lance
whiplash
Tactical Magnum

What number you roll is random, but items are weighted in favor of the AR. So it can be both random selection but weighted distribution of what you get out of the random roll. It’s the same thing as Destiny’s random loot drop.

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5/9/2018

Tommi theKrogan

Marine - Silver

ZaedynFel wrote:
Tommi theKrogan wrote:
[Questions about playing vs. Parties
I adapted my query so I could see specifically how you do against party sizes.

You are 73% vs. to3 which you have played 11 times.
You are now 47% vs. to4 which you have now played 15 times. I guess you played 7 more times vs. to4 since the last talk and won all of them.
You are 48% vs. to2 and 60% vs. to1.

vs to3 or to4 (26 matches) you are 58%.

I played one game of HCS yesterday, but that's all between now and when you said I was 0-8 against teams of four in HCS. I doubt that you made a mistake and accidentally looked at other playlist data as well? I haven't played HCS but for that one game, but I have played Elimination recently, and against teams of four. I'd still guess your data was simply dragging behind or something.

According to that data you posted though, the way of me having a 53 win percentage in HCS would mean that I'm playing around 50 % of my games against teams of two in HCS (48 % wins against to2). And I'm playing only 1-5 % of my games against solo players (60 % wins against to1). This assumption is based on quick math and the fact that I win 58 % against to3 and to4 combined, which is 26 matches. That's quite an interesting division to be honest.

But that's all from me if you will, you have shown me that I have been over exaggerating about how often I play against big parties (with my main account, the situation with my secondary account is worse for sure, since it has been pounded close to 40 win percentage in HCS. But that account is suspended in HaloWaypoint now, so I guess I can't ask you to show the data for it).

And as you probably noticed, I tried to bring forward my own perception earlier and argue about it, which was that there is no real change or 'restrictions' between TS1 and TS2 regarding how easily you can get matched against a to3 or to4, even though it was implied that it should be harder now ("MAY PLAYLIST UPDATES" community update). But this probably doesn't concern you or your job now that I think of it, which is something I should've realized before. Sorry about that.

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5/9/2018

snickerdoodle

343 Industries

Tommi theKrogan wrote:
But that account is suspended in HaloWaypoint now, so I guess I can't ask you to show the data for it).

Being suspended from the forums for second accounts (which you should know better. :P) doesn't mean it can't be looked at. It just keeps you from posting on it again. You're free to link to your second account. Just don't use it. :)

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5/9/2018

Tommi theKrogan

Marine - Silver

^ Thanks for that, let's see if it's true. Alright, here I go once more Mr. Menke. Could you please share the data of Tommi theLeader that I'm about to indicate below from the HCS playlist. There isn't much that I wish to see, and I know it won't take long. I leave the decision with you of course.

What are the percentages of said account playing and winning against:
1) teams of 1
2) teams of 2
3) teams of 3
4) teams of 4
And does this account (on average) kill and perform as expected?

And a question, if you want / can answer it: why has my win percentage in HCS with this account (Tommi theLeader) gone this low: 58 games this season, 45 win percentage. End of last season: 229 games, 46 win percentage. And why has it dropped from Onyx 1768 (my highest CSR rank last season, got it solo searching, pretty sure about that) to Diamond 3 or 4 (my lowest CSR rank last season). This season, I made a completely new account with 0 games in Arena, and played the placement matches in HCS, and got Onyx 1575 for it. I also got Onyx for my main account. So why exactly is Tommi theLeader forced to stay on Diamond (where I landed this season after placement matches), when I clearly belong in Onyx? Even though it's me playing every time and I give it what I have to give.. I know I didn't belong in 1750+ Onyx last season (solo playing). And I know I don't belong in 1700+ Onyx this season (solo playing). And I know I don't belong in Diamond either (solo playing). But no matter how well I played, I couldn't get out of Diamond once I dropped there last season, and I can't seem to be able to get out of there this season either. It really does feel like I'm forced to stay there, getting teammates that do not belong in that match, getting unfair matches in general and getting no real 50/50 win chance often at all.

Thank you for your time and effort in advance.

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OP 5/9/2018

ZaedynFel

343 Industries

Tommi theKrogan wrote:
^ Thanks for that, let's see if it's true. Alright, here I go once more Mr. Menke. Could you please share the data of Tommi theLeader that I'm about to indicate below from the HCS playlist. There isn't much that I wish to see, and I know it won't take long. I leave the decision with you of course.

What are the percentages of said account playing and winning against:
1) teams of 1
2) teams of 2
3) teams of 3
4) teams of 4
And does this account (on average) kill and perform as expected?

And a question, if you want / can answer it: why has my win percentage in HCS with this account (Tommi theLeader) gone this low: 58 games this season, 45 win percentage. End of last season: 229 games, 46 win percentage. And why has it dropped from Onyx 1768 (my highest CSR rank last season, got it solo searching, pretty sure about that) to Diamond 3 or 4 (my lowest CSR rank last season). This season, I made a completely new account with 0 games in Arena, and played the placement matches in HCS, and got Onyx 1575 for it. I also got Onyx for my main account. So why exactly is Tommi theLeader forced to stay on Diamond (where I landed this season after placement matches), when I clearly belong in Onyx? Even though it's me playing every time and I give it what I have to give.. I know I didn't belong in 1750+ Onyx last season. And I know I don't belong in 1700+ Onyx this season. But no matter how good I play, I couldn't get out of Diamond once I dropped there last season, and I can't seem to be able to get out of there this season either. It really does feel like I'm forced to stay there, getting unfair matches and given no real 50/50 win chance often at all.

Thank you for your time and effort in advance.

This season is more strict about Onyx on placement than last season, though about the same on who it eventually allows in.

1. 60%, 14 vs. 12 (kills vs. expected)
2. 46% 11 vs. 11
3. 38% 14 vs. 13
4. 32% 14 vs. 12

HCS has more parties than non-parties at the top, which is why you tend to play with and against them.

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5/9/2018

Tommi theKrogan

Marine - Silver

ZaedynFel wrote:
Tommi theKrogan wrote:
^ Thanks for that, let's see if it's true. Alright, here I go once more Mr. Menke. Could you please share the data of Tommi theLeader that I'm about to indicate below from the HCS playlist. There isn't much that I wish to see, and I know it won't take long. I leave the decision with you of course.

What are the percentages of said account playing and winning against:
1) teams of 1
2) teams of 2
3) teams of 3
4) teams of 4
And does this account (on average) kill and perform as expected?

And a question, if you want / can answer it: why has my win percentage in HCS with this account (Tommi theLeader) gone this low: 58 games this season, 45 win percentage. End of last season: 229 games, 46 win percentage. And why has it dropped from Onyx 1768 (my highest CSR rank last season, got it solo searching, pretty sure about that) to Diamond 3 or 4 (my lowest CSR rank last season). This season, I made a completely new account with 0 games in Arena, and played the placement matches in HCS, and got Onyx 1575 for it. I also got Onyx for my main account. So why exactly is Tommi theLeader forced to stay on Diamond (where I landed this season after placement matches), when I clearly belong in Onyx? Even though it's me playing every time and I give it what I have to give.. I know I didn't belong in 1750+ Onyx last season. And I know I don't belong in 1700+ Onyx this season. But no matter how good I play, I couldn't get out of Diamond once I dropped there last season, and I can't seem to be able to get out of there this season either. It really does feel like I'm forced to stay there, getting unfair matches and given no real 50/50 win chance often at all.

Thank you for your time and effort in advance.
This season is more strict about Onyx on placement than last season, though about the same on who it eventually allows in.

1. 60%, 14 vs. 12 (kills vs. expected)
2. 46% 11 vs. 11
3. 38% 14 vs. 13
4. 32% 14 vs. 12

HCS has more parties than non-parties at the top, which is why you tend to play with and against them.

Did you miss the part of "What are the percentages of said account playing and winning against:"? You gave me my win percentages, but I also asked you to show the percentages of me playing against to1, to2, to3 and to4. Because that is the info that is most interesting to me, you know, who I'm put up against most often.

And I'm sorry, but you didn't answer my question. If you don't want / can't answer it, please just say it.
Does the data imply that the performance of Tommi theLeader makes him belong in Diamond? Is this all just a big mistake, meaning that me, Tommi theKrogan, should also be in Diamond? Or should it be the other way around, that both of these accounts are meant to be in Onyx?

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5/9/2018

chaotic banana

Recruit - Iron

When is Snipers coming back? :c

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OP 5/9/2018

ZaedynFel

343 Industries

Tommi theKrogan wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Tommi theKrogan wrote:
^ Thanks for that, let's see if it's true. Alright, here I go once more Mr. Menke. Could you please share the data of Tommi theLeader that I'm about to indicate below from the HCS playlist. There isn't much that I wish to see, and I know it won't take long. I leave the decision with you of course.

What are the percentages of said account playing and winning against:
1) teams of 1
2) teams of 2
3) teams of 3
4) teams of 4
And does this account (on average) kill and perform as expected?

And a question, if you want / can answer it: why has my win percentage in HCS with this account (Tommi theLeader) gone this low: 58 games this season, 45 win percentage. End of last season: 229 games, 46 win percentage. And why has it dropped from Onyx 1768 (my highest CSR rank last season, got it solo searching, pretty sure about that) to Diamond 3 or 4 (my lowest CSR rank last season). This season, I made a completely new account with 0 games in Arena, and played the placement matches in HCS, and got Onyx 1575 for it. I also got Onyx for my main account. So why exactly is Tommi theLeader forced to stay on Diamond (where I landed this season after placement matches), when I clearly belong in Onyx? Even though it's me playing every time and I give it what I have to give.. I know I didn't belong in 1750+ Onyx last season. And I know I don't belong in 1700+ Onyx this season. But no matter how good I play, I couldn't get out of Diamond once I dropped there last season, and I can't seem to be able to get out of there this season either. It really does feel like I'm forced to stay there, getting unfair matches and given no real 50/50 win chance often at all.

Thank you for your time and effort in advance.
This season is more strict about Onyx on placement than last season, though about the same on who it eventually allows in.

1. 60%, 14 vs. 12 (kills vs. expected)
2. 46% 11 vs. 11
3. 38% 14 vs. 13
4. 32% 14 vs. 12

HCS has more parties than non-parties at the top, which is why you tend to play with and against them.
Did you miss the part of "What are the percentages of said account playing and winning against:"? You gave me my win percentages, but I also asked you to show the percentages of me playing against to1, to2, to3 and to4. Because that is the info that is most interesting to me, you know, who I'm put up against most often.

And I'm sorry, but you didn't answer my question. If you don't want / can't answer it, please just say it.
Does the data imply that the performance of Tommi theLeader makes him belong in Diamond? Is this all just a big mistake, meaning that me, Tommi theKrogan, should also be in Diamond? Or should it be the other way around, that both of these accounts are meant to be in Onyx?

1 0.103
2 0.247
3 0.299
4 0.351

Also matches the ratio of party sizes we see in HCS Onyx.

Skill bounces up and down around the Onyx border, currently in Onyx.

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5/9/2018

Tommi theKrogan

Marine - Silver

ZaedynFel wrote:
Tommi theKrogan wrote:
ZaedynFel wrote:
Tommi theKrogan wrote:
^ Thanks for that, let's see if it's true. Alright, here I go once more Mr. Menke. Could you please share the data of Tommi theLeader that I'm about to indicate below from the HCS playlist. There isn't much that I wish to see, and I know it won't take long. I leave the decision with you of course.

What are the percentages of said account playing and winning against:
1) teams of 1
2) teams of 2
3) teams of 3
4) teams of 4
And does this account (on average) kill and perform as expected?

And a question, if you want / can answer it: why has my win percentage in HCS with this account (Tommi theLeader) gone this low: 58 games this season, 45 win percentage. End of last season: 229 games, 46 win percentage. And why has it dropped from Onyx 1768 (my highest CSR rank last season, got it solo searching, pretty sure about that) to Diamond 3 or 4 (my lowest CSR rank last season). This season, I made a completely new account with 0 games in Arena, and played the placement matches in HCS, and got Onyx 1575 for it. I also got Onyx for my main account. So why exactly is Tommi theLeader forced to stay on Diamond (where I landed this season after placement matches), when I clearly belong in Onyx? Even though it's me playing every time and I give it what I have to give.. I know I didn't belong in 1750+ Onyx last season. And I know I don't belong in 1700+ Onyx this season. But no matter how good I play, I couldn't get out of Diamond once I dropped there last season, and I can't seem to be able to get out of there this season either. It really does feel like I'm forced to stay there, getting unfair matches and given no real 50/50 win chance often at all.

Thank you for your time and effort in advance.
1 0.103
2 0.247
3 0.299
4 0.351

Also matches the ratio of party sizes we see in HCS Onyx.

Skill bounces up and down around the Onyx border, currently in Onyx.

Thank you.

Edit: "skill bounces up and down around the Onyx border", but my rank doesn't (I laughed a bit when I said that in my head).

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5/10/2018

Hydrisney

Recruit - Bronze

Go on call me out publicly but I am consistently looking at halo waypoint to see that I've won 2 out of the last 20 games. I'm a decent player but holy cow is it hard to enjoy this game when I'm losing everything. I want to play halo with my friends but they aren't as good as me, they won't play with me because we get wrecked every single game. Then they go and play with each other and have heaps of fun. How can I join in with them?

Should also add, really thankful for all the effort going into making this a better game. Just genuinely frustrated I can't play with my friends. Because of what appears to be a skill gap...

Thank you!

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