Opinion on ONI's actions against the Elites?

Just because there is a problem doesn't mean that there is also a solution. Sometimes, there is nothing you can do; and sometimes trying to invent solutions can make things worse.

That is what ONI fell afoul of. They thought that it was plausible for "the Sangheili" to turn on humanity, and therefore thought that there was something they could do to prevent that. There was nothing they could ever do to prevent that though given what the Halo canon has told us about the age, size and power of the Covenant. Yet in trying to do something, quite possible just for the sake of acting, they gave birth to Jul 'Mdama, emboldened anti-human factions everywhere and weakened the Arbiter's capacity to police them. ONi's actions were, in the end, a great detriment to humanity's safety and have actually cost the lives of thousands of humans that would have been alive otherwise.

Looking at the specifics, ONI didn't know how large Covenant space was; they didn't even know where Sanghelios was until 2553CE. They had no idea as to how many colonies there were and therefore absolutely no knowledge whatsoever about what kind of industrial power was out there, what kind of fleets and armies existed, how quickly they could be sent against Earth, and what the political landscape looked like in terms of alliances and infighting. They had nothing. Yet in spite of that, they dived headfirst into a plan that they believed would drastically reduce "the Sangheili's" capacity to turn on humanity? They can't know that, because they have zero clue on just what kind of offensive and future capabilities "the Sangheili " even have. Sanghelios is just on planet out of thousands.

You may have noticed by now that I'm putting Sangheili in commas. Why? I'm doing that to highlight the fact that "the Sangheili" is not a country or a nation or an alliance; it is not a polity like the UNSC or the UEG. It is a species. It doesn't have intentions or capabilities. It is nothing more than a large group of individuals that share close genetics, and that's where the association between them ends. Within this group exists a massive diversity of culture and nationality just as would surely exist within humans. This is important to note, because ONI made this entire group the subject of their already very weak campaign despite the fact that doing such a thing was incredibly wasteful. They should have instead targeted those specific groups that were anti-human, because otherwise they just wasted their resources on people who weren't a threat to them thereby making it harder to actually control those who were a threat. Carrying out their action on all Sangheili was arbitrary, and as equally valid - and as equally useless - as carrying it out against any other random group of people. If some Sangheili have made up their minds that they don't want to kill humans, then what distinguishes them from humans themselves with regards to assessing how much of a threat they are to other humans? When looking through ONI's lenses at the word this way, literally everyone is a threat at all times and needs to be actioned, including humans (Because there's also a chance that any human can turn into a murderer or a terrorist, I guess).

Back to the specifics of their plan, they emboldened anti-human factions and factions opposed to the Arbiter, groups that would never have been a threat on the timescales they had been, had ONI not acted. This is ironic; or maybe another phrase for it is "self-fulfilling prophecy". The servants of Abiding Truth would have been in no position to attack the Arbiter without ONI's weapon shipments. ONI gave strength to this faction, making them look more legitimate than they had any right looking. The Servants, having to take resources from the humans they so despised, were obviously having no luck in getting support from their own people. Yet in supplying arms to the Servants, ONI made them look more successful and that would have helped them recruit; ONI gave them a PR boost. This of course lead to the attempted coup on the Arbiter that caught him completely off guard and almost got him overthrown when others realized that they had a shot at taking down the Arbiter, which would have seen anti-human dictators take control when they never would have. The Arbiter, not expecting his foes to be as far ahead as they were thanks to ONI's treason, was not prepared to face this.

The most damaging result of ONI attempting to mess around in Covenant space was the creation of Jul 'Mdama as a figurehead, to which all of these now emboldened factions crystallized around. ONI embroiled the Arbiter in petty turf wars on Sanghelios with nobody factions like the Servants of Abiding Truth, dividing the Arbiter's power and reducing his ability to police hostile factions outwith Sanghelios, making it easier for Jul to recruit and build his faction which would then go on to attack human colonies. Cleyell, a human colony glassed after Halo 3, might still have existed if the Arbiter had been able to mount stronger pressure on the base worlds of these various factions.

For taking part in the coup against an allied government, and for giving aid and comfort to the enemies of the UEG, those involved in ONI's destabilization plot are all traitors to the state and should be stood before a tribunal.

Then we get to the dumb plot to poison the Sangheili's food supply with what is essentially a glorified weed. I mean this can't get any more silly, but given that people still think that this is a clever idea I need to point out how incredibly unlikely it is that the Sangheili only have one food source; or how unlikely it is for such a crop to spread throughout their space once they realize that one specific strain of grain is poisoning people. Something called import/export freezes would take effect, and ONI's crop would be systematically purged from their logistics. Then everyone would start looking for the culprit who engineered this thing, and there's only two groups sufficiently isolated from the economy, food supply and trade that exists in ex-Covenant space that would be unaffected by the attempted mass poisoning of an entire species and the resulting collapse of the agricultural system throughout ex-Covenant space if this thing successfully spread according to its designers intentions... The UEG and the surviving San-Shyuum. That brings an awful lot of scrutiny down upon the UEG.

I can't tell if the writers intended for ONI to look so terribly incompetent, or if the writers are terribly incompetent at writing a competent ONI.

The elites spent 25 years comitting genocide against humanity. They only stopped doing so because the prophets turned against them. They helped humanity for about a month, and as Ghosts of Onyx showed there was still a sizable number of elites planning to kill humanity after the schism (who thankfully died). And of course there were still groups after who were still anti human.

It makes sense not to trust them.

I see where you’re going Voka Ochreut and you make great points, but I do disagree somewhat. Consider that ONI is now acting from a position of perceived superiority. With the Covenant scattered and no common cause amongst Sangheili - as you rightly pointed out - ONI has on the other hand built a small army of Spartans and can ship them around space on the Infinity, one of the most powerful vessels in the galaxy. From this backstop position of strength it makes sense to come at the Sangheili in two ways:

1. top down: two warring factions is better than one unified faction that could create that cause the Sangheili lack and turn it on humanity again
2. bottom up: understand what keeps them alive and find ways to poison it

As EvilKeny28 says, it’s not about whether you trust the Sangheili, it’s about whether you will ever again allow them to be in a position to slaughter humanity by the billion. It’s the oldest adage to keep your enemies closer than your friends, and even in this friendship, I would want the terms to be dictated by humanity, to be certain at all times we keep the ability to destroy the Sangheili before once again becoming victim to their warfare. Sure sowing seeds of insurrection by arming factions is a risk, but a calculated one against the force of a Spartan-laden Infinity.

If, for instance, they ever again developed advanced, threatening technology, I would expect our union with them to devolve quickly. We always need to keep the upper hand now and should do whatever it takes to ensure this is the case. I’d stop short of genocide, but I’d have little compunction putting them back in the Stone Age, and would 100% make sure that if it ever came to us or them again, it would definitely be them getting clipped this time.

EvilKeny28 wrote:

Tripticon 343 wrote:

Meanwhile the elites are well off (besides knowing that 1000's of years of their history was all for nothing) and could destroy the rest of humanity if they really wanted to put effort into it, which some do and some don't care anymore.

The Sangheili are far from well off. The Kilo 5 Trilogy delves into all the problems they are currently having. They no longer have access to many engineers and much of their equipment is damaged and in disrepair. The Sangheili, by the end of the war, were not self-sufficient as their role in life had been entirely military oriented for millennia.
Also they underestimate Humanity, as revealed in some of the most recent novels they were plans made in case Earth fell, and then there is UNSC Infinity (which is more powerful than a Covenant Carrier).
Both Humanity and the Sangheili were in bad situations by the end of the war, and it is true that the former was in a worse position. However I don't think there would have been any winners had the hostilities continued.

I haven't read the Kilo 5 Trilogy but if the elites are that bad off then I'm surprised ONI hasn't figured that out by now (they do have spying capabilities still correct?). But even with both species in bad positions I'd rather humanity be in the better position by almost any means necessary (I would be against flat out genociding the elites as they could be allies once humanity is strong again and could afford to risk a war with them if things turn sour).

Lambsenglish wrote:

I see where you’re going Voka Ochreut and you make great points, but I do disagree somewhat. Consider that ONI is now acting from a position of perceived superiority. With the Covenant scattered and no common cause amongst Sangheili - as you rightly pointed out - ONI has on the other hand built a small army of Spartans and can ship them around space on the Infinity, one of the most powerful vessels in the galaxy. From this backstop position of strength it makes sense to come at the Sangheili in two ways:

1. top down: two warring factions is better than one unified faction that could create that cause the Sangheili lack and turn it on humanity again
2. bottom up: understand what keeps them alive and find ways to poison it

It's a huge failure of ONI to think that they have any upper hand on anyone. A small army of Spartans-IVs and the Infinity are a massive resource drain for a battered post-war entity like the UNSC, which has lost over half of its pre-war population and most of its colonies; which represents a massive loss to its pre-war economic output. That means less available resources and smaller budgets compared to the pre-war days. Existing infrastructure and resources are going to be tied up in rebuilding Earth, and rehousing refugees from across the colonial front line.

The Infinity and the S-IV's are entirely dependent on huge and very fragile logistical networks that wouldn't survive any real attempt to destroy them. A ship the size of Infinity with 17'000 crew-members isn't going to be serviceable to most shipyards in human space given the unprecedented size of such a vessel, and the price tag of its highly experimental technology will make it a costly upkeep. I can't imagine the amount of resources the Infinity is sucking up from the fleet budget just to keep it running, in terms of how many other other vessels the UNSC could field instead. Spartans themselves require Mjolnir armor and augmentations that are extremely invasive and require dozens of hours of surgical time and weeks of post-augmentation observation and recovery. All of this expense is to be loaded onto a smaller post-war budget in the midst of humanitarian crises in UEG space, as well as the continuation of the secession of UEG colonies.

And the result of all these costs? A ship that can only be in one place at one time and is - in the end - still subject to the same limitations as every other UNSC ship: That being the profound lack of intel that ONI has on the Covenant sphere of civilization. In other words, the Infinity is useless if you don't know where to send it. The Infinity is also useless against hardened targets as the Escalation comic showed us when a Covenant defense station gutted the Infinity. The Infinity and the Spartan-IV's are completely overrated by this community.

I've already laid out the problems for the top-down and bottom-up strategies as well. They cannot work, not because they are immoral, or because ONI should trust Sangheili, or any of any of that emotional baggage: They don't work because they are literally impossible for ONI to action them. The problem with ONI after Halo 3 has never been a problem with ethics, law, trust or morality. It has been a problem of practicality, calculation and logistics.

Lambsenglish wrote:

As EvilKeny28 says, it’s not about whether you trust the Sangheili, it’s about whether you will ever again allow them to be in a position to slaughter humanity by the billion. It’s the oldest adage to keep your enemies closer than your friends, and even in this friendship, I would want the terms to be dictated by humanity, to be certain at all times we keep the ability to destroy the Sangheili before once again becoming victim to their warfare. Sure sowing seeds of insurrection by arming factions is a risk, but a calculated one against the force of a Spartan-laden Infinity.

Trust is irrelevant. Whether ONI trusts them or loathes them does not have any bearing on their ability to act on those feelings. This is what is called an emotional appeal, but it is baseless. UrbaneRocket495's and EvilKeny28's arguments are essentially the same fallacy; emotionally laden appeals that do not fit the facts or the canon. I don't care what circumstances would lead to ONI not trusting others. It doesn't matter, because ONI are toothless. The other arguments in this thread amount to pretending that ONI was in any position to do anything.

I will quote what I said in the opening of my first post:

"Just because there is a problem doesn't mean that there is also a solution. Sometimes, there is nothing you can do; and sometimes trying to invent solutions can make things worse."

There was nothing ONI could do about the Sangheili. Nothing. Yes, ONI doesn't trust them. Yes, ONI are right to distrust them after the war. That however is all ONI had any capacity to do, other than say a more nuanced plan to cultivate pro-human groups at the expense of anti-human ones perhaps (Because people don't seem to understand the distinction between a species and a political faction for some reason, even though that distinction has been built into the Halo canon since day one through the Carver Findings).

Lambsenglish wrote:

If, for instance, they ever again developed advanced, threatening technology, I would expect our union with them to devolve quickly. We always need to keep the upper hand now and should do whatever it takes to ensure this is the case. I’d stop short of genocide, but I’d have little compunction putting them back in the Stone Age, and would 100% make sure that if it ever came to us or them again, it would definitely be them getting clipped this time.

This is basically the argument that race relations are a zero-sum game, but once again commits the fallacy that these species are political units like a country and incapable of sub-dividing, intermingling and seeing sub-groups aligning their interests with sub-groups of other races. It also assumes that things like trade, finance and treaties won't make them too thoroughly integrated economically to start another war. There's a big reason why, after two devastating world wars, Western Europe hasn't went for a third and it's because such a war would have destroyed the economies of every western European nation - and thus their ability to fight - before the first shot was even fired.

Demonstrably, in 2558CE - five years after Kilo-5 - the Swords of Sanghelios have largely solved most of the issues described in those novels. The prospect of food shortages talked about by Raia and Jul? Not mentioned since (And it was a stupid issue anyway; as if the San-Shyuum were actually working their fields or something). The problems with technology? They have taken old ships from the War of Beginnings - like Brigantines and Blockade Runners - and refit them to modern standards to enable them to go toe-to-toe with contemporary Covenant ships. The innovation problem? Try refitting 3000 year old designs with modern technologies and equipment without a great deal of ingenuity. Their military strength? Enough to crush what's left of the Covenant, which the UNSC couldn't do despite the Covenant attacking the UNSC on a continual basis after Halo 3. This is not a faction that doesn't already possess "advanced, threatening technology" and yet in spite of that, their relations with the UEG continue to deepen and general Sangheili-Human interactions continue to approach normative levels.

If anything the Elites are justified to retaliate against Humanity.

Voka Ochreut wrote:

A small army of Spartans-IVs and the Infinity are a massive resource drain for a battered post-war entity like the UNSC.

No evidence of this. Yes it's lower numbers than they had, but it's higher impact + higher survival rates = higher efficiency.

Voka Ochreut wrote:

The Infinity and the S-IV's are entirely dependent on huge and very fragile logistical networks that wouldn't survive any real attempt to destroy them.

How so? There's no indication they are dependent on any such thing.

Voka Ochreut wrote:

And the result of all these costs? A ship that can only be in one place at one time and is - in the end - still subject to the same limitations as every other UNSC ship

All ships in the universe can only be in one place at one time - this doesn't make them all equal. The Infinity is far from equal, with greater armaments and navigational capabilities than any other UNSC ship, as you well know.

Voka Ochreut wrote:

The Infinity is also useless against hardened targets as the Escalation comic showed us when a Covenant defense station gutted the Infinity.

It was hit multiple times by a PLANETARY GLASSING BEAM and survived. That's not "useless", it is uniquely powerful and resilient, something humanity could well have done with during the war.

Voka Ochreut wrote:

I've already laid out the problems for the top-down and bottom-up strategies as well. They cannot work, not because they are immoral, or because ONI should trust Sangheili, or any of any of that emotional baggage: They don't work because they are literally impossible for ONI to action them.

This doesn't make sense - you've already said in your original post that the top-down did work. You say it was ill-advised, but that it had an impact.

Voka Ochreut wrote:

This is basically the argument that race relations are a zero-sum game, but once again commits the fallacy that these species are political units like a country and incapable of sub-dividing, intermingling and seeing sub-groups aligning their interests with sub-groups of other races. It also assumes that things like trade, finance and treaties won't make them too thoroughly integrated economically to start another war.

No it isn't, not at all. It is the argument that WAR is a zero-sum game, and commits to the EVIDENCE that the last conflict between the two species was a genocide, and as such it would be foolish to allow the next conflict to be the same. Suggesting trade & finance etc. can prevent war has only ever proved true of known civilisations in the short/medium-term. In the long-term, there's always war. That's not a fallacy, it's just basic history.

Voka Ochreut wrote:

There's another gaping issue with all of your arguments, and it has to do with this idea I already highlighted that it is impractical and unrealistic to view a species as a contiguous unit similar to a country that acts as a single political body. This is wrong.

This is a really, really odd statement given the central pillar of the Halo universe. It was called the Human-Covenant war for a reason.

Is it morally right? No, but ONI is probably the most powerful human agency and considering how sneaky and subversive they are: I’m not surprised they would use such tactics to stay in power. While it is currently beneficial to the survival of the human species that ONI is so manipulative(and I’m sure former CINCONI Margaret Parangosky’s and her successor Serin Osman’s intentions are for the greater good of the human species), eventually there is going to come a time when this becomes controversial and starts more human civil wars and terrorist groups claiming the government and/or military is corrupt and so on and so forth. Maybe by that time the government will be corrupt and so will the future ONI, so the better question is: Should ONI be allowed to have so much power? And yes most of this is secret, but many secrets don’t stay secrets forever and with how many secrets ONI has, it is only a matter of time before they are leaked. After all, ONI can’t continue cleaning up all the loose ends forever.

OK Voka Ochreut as I said before, I think you make some good points based in sound thought - I haven’t missed your arguments, I just disagree with their application to the Halo universe.

You think I’m overrating the significance of Infinity because you say it relies on the same support mechanisms as any other ship, is expensive, and is still susceptible to Sangheili weaponry. I disagree. I’m saying the Infinity is sufficiently advanced (tech, navigation, weaponry, manufacturing) that the advanced costs are delivered with a non-linear relationship to impact, making it more efficient at the price - not a drain, but a bonus, money better spent.

e.g. I’m telling you it’s significant that Infinity was damaged by but survived multiple hits from a glassing beam, because no other human PLANET has survived this, let alone any other ship. To ignore the significance of this advance in tech, and the difference it would have made to Human-Sangheili conflict, seems odd.

Also yes Mjolnir was super expensive, but now that there’s an army of Spartan-IVs running amok in the stuff surely you can see that that obviously shows the UNSC can afford it, because, simply, it exists. So again it would seem that efficiency gains mean the tech must be cheaper to produce and maintain - basic manufacturing economies of scale.

You say I’m viewing species relations as zero sum, I’m telling you I’m not. I’m pretty clear on this, so why you’re not, I’m not sure. I’m perfectly aware the history of Europe, but you seem to missing out the details inconvenient to your argument:

1. Germany STILL has self-imposed military restrictions due to its history
2. Russia just annexed Crimea and has lit up both Ukraine and Georgia in the last decade
3. The Yugoslav wars went on for 10 years starting in the 90s

This peaceful trade-driven bliss you’re taking about doesn’t exist mate. Trade keeps things smooth but people are people. It’s not an oversimplification to point out that thousands of years of human history outweighs the last 50 - it’s naive to think otherwise.

And this whole thread is about Human-Sangheili conflict, so apologies but saying that nothing you’ve said has anything to do with the Human-Covenant war just makes no sense.

Voka Ochreut wrote:

I don't think people are that gullible though. Over time I've come to realize that a significant part of this denial is connected with wanting that vicarious revenge and power fantasy against the Covenant species that was withheld during the Nylund-Bungie story arcs for so long. In this sense, given that ONI's actions are both surplus to requirement and also practically infeasible for it to pull off, I think nothing of it as being anything else other than a cynical power fantasy for some people. They will defend it tooth and nail in spite of all the contrary evidence because it emotionally means something to them, and that's why despite all the recent canon since Glasslands having proven them wrong, people still blindly defend it as if this is still 2011 canon.

You make some good points, however I disagree a lot with what you have said.
Infinity and the Spartan 4s may be a drain on resources, but are not a liability as they have demonstrated their worth and effectiveness time and time again. GEN2 also does not cost nearly as much as the previous MJOLNIR models, which helps sustain the Spartan 4 program.
Also the fact that Humanity would be so close to the brick of annihilation would motivate a lot of people to keep things going.
Also we do not know that much about what infrastructure Humanity had after Earth as such information has never been given, but we do know that ONI has plans should Earth fall as evidenced by Bad Blood.
ONI does have a lack of intel yes, but by the end of the war they had already discovered the location of several Sangheili colonies and then proceeded to destroy one with a NOVA bomb. Even crippled Humanity was still capable of hurting their adversary.
Infinity and the S4s are far from overestimated. Infinity is the single most powerful ship ever created by Humanity and is only seconded by a Covenant Supercarrier. It is able to take on a small fleet of warships on its own and was the only vessel in Earths fleet capable of damaging the Didact's ship and we know how powerful the Super MAC platforms are. Yes it was disabled by Covenant Space Station, but we have no idea how common those are and despite firing its glassing canon 3 times (which overheated the gun) it was unable to destroy Infinity.
Truth is also far from irrelevant. ONI could not trust Thel due to his actions during the Human Covenant war as well as the fact that he was the only Sangheili that was calling for peace between the two species and he had a lot of rivals. My arguments do appeal to emotions yes, because that is exactly how people would feel and how they did feel if Kilo 5 has any worth. 25 years of attempted genocide is not simply swept under the rug.
ONI is far from toothless if Halo Envoy is anything to go by. Also ONI was capable of things, they did engineer a Sangheili civil was that has continued all the way till 2558, and they did create that poison weed thing and could deploy it if things between the two were to escalate once more.
I believe that you underestimate the impact that an Alien race that committed 25 years of genocide against Humanity would have on them. It doesn't matter if the Sangheili are not politically united, for ONI that's just a bonus, they would simply want to ensure that such an attempt at genocide could never be attempted against Humanity again.
You are correct that the Sangheili have solved many problems since the end of the war, however the details are not known to us. Trading with their human allies probably helped their stability speed up as we do know that Human-Sangheili exchange was present post-war. We do not know how fairs their agriculture or engineering output. The fact that they are retrofitting old ships implies they still cannot mass produce their own ships, at least not at an acceptable rate. And this is all ignoring the Human side of things, who in the meantime have fully rebuilt Earth's defences, have already begun re-colonialization efforts, have built new warship types and weapons with experimental technologies such as the Hannibal Mantis well under way, the S4s are further increasing in size and Infinitie's sister ship has begun construction. Humanity by 2558 is more powerful than the Swords of Sangheilios and is further implied by Lasky's speech at the start of Spartan Ops when he says "now we are the giants".
Also saying that the Sangheili defeated the New Covenant while the UNSC failed is flat out wrong. Both of them engaged the new threat. By the time of Halo 5, the Covenant were almost defeated and then their leader was killed by S4 fireteam. This caused the remaining forces to launch a final strike on the Arbiter and would have succeeded killing him had it not been for that same S4 team, which were also instrumental at the final battle of Sunaion.